Research

Research Projects

Reading Between the Lines: Uncovering Inflation Expectations from Multilingual Media Coverage [JMP]

Abstract: This paper examines how households’ inflation beliefs respond to country-specific media coverage of European Central Bank (ECB) communication. Using 79,000 newspaper articles published between 2013 and 2025, I construct country-specific measures of frequency and direction of ECB-related coverage and link them to inflation perceptions and expectations. I uncover substantial cross-country heterogeneity in media transmission: German media frequently tie ECB communication to inflation, while Spanish and Italian media focus more on economic developments. Estimates from a BVAR suggest that frequency raises inflation perceptions by up to 1pp, in addition, direction shifts expectations by up to 0.4pp. A signal-extraction model shows that households rely more on media signals during the post-2021 inflation surge. Embedding these differences in a New Keynesian model opens a role for country-specific communication: Pairing targeted messaging with the common interest rate raises union welfare. The findings highlight the scope of targeted monetary policy communication in a multilingual currency union.

Selected Presentations: JME-SNB-Gerzensee Conference on Monetary Policy, ECB Conference on Monetary Policy, SNB Research Conference 2026, EEA-ESEM 2026 @University College Dublin, ECONDAT 2026 Spring meeting @Banque de France, 2nd Kiel-CEPR Conference on Monetary Policy, Young Swiss Economists Meeting @ETH Zurich

Using Natural Language Processing to Identify Monetary Policy Shocks [Working Paper]

with Marc Schranz and Larissa Schwaller
Abstract: Identifying the causal effects of monetary policy is challenging due to the endogeneity of policy decisions. In recent years, high-frequency monetary policy surprises have become a popular identification strategy. To serve as a valid instrument, monetary policy surprises must be correlated with the true policy shock (relevant) while remaining uncorrelated with other shocks (exogenous). However, market-based monetary policy surprises around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements often suffer from weak relevance and endogeneity concerns. This paper explores whether text analysis methods applied to central bank communication can help mitigate these concerns. We adopt two complementary approaches. First, to improve instrument relevance, we extend the dataset of monetary policy surprises from FOMC announcements to policy-relevant speeches by the Federal Reserve Board chair and vice chair. Second, using natural language processing techniques, we predict changes in market expectations from central bank communication, isolating the component of monetary policy surprises driven solely by communication. The resulting language-driven monetary policy surprises exhibit stronger instrument relevance, mitigate endogeneity concerns and produce impulse responses that align with standard macroeconomic theory.

Selected Presentations: EFiC 2025 @University of Bologna, SNB Research Conference 2025, SSES @University of Lucerne, ESIF Economics and AI+ML Meeting @Cornell University, JME-SNB-Gerzensee Conference on Information Frictions in Macroeconomics, Women in Central Banking @Norges Bank

The Phillips Trade-off from a Historical Perspective: A Multi-Country Analysis

Abstract: I estimate Bayesian VARs and use two identification strategies to analyse the impact of structural disturbances on the unemployment-inflation trade-off for different monetary regimes in seven countries. Using two to four sub-samples per country, I obtain three key results. First, sub-periods starting in the 1970s are associated with stronger responses from economic variables, leading to greater positive and negative Phillips trade-offs. Second, I observe a muted reaction to some shocks after the Great Financial Crisis. Finally, I find that the United States and the Euro Area often present unique reactions to structural disturbances. Altogether, results over the sub-samples differ significantly. Hence, using shorter samples, fixed coefficients, and including multiple countries proves vital in understanding economic forces.

Policy Project

Comparing the pandemic recession of 2020 to the historical recession experience

with Nina Dorta and Christian Hepenstrick
Economic Note at the Swiss National Bank, 2022